As advocates assess whether President-elect Trump will support high-speed rail, they have relatively few data points to go off of. Yes, there’s Project 2025, which calls for across-the-board cuts to transportation spending. And there’s the $900 million grant Trump yanked from California High-Speed Rail during his last term.
But more recent utterances by the President-elect paint a different picture. In a conversation with Elon Musk on X this August, Trump described the nation’s lack of high-speed rail as “sad.” The “bullet trains” he has encountered in other countries “go unbelievably fast,” he said. They’re “unbelievably comfortable with no problems. And we don’t have anything like that in this country, not even close. And it doesn’t make sense that we don’t.”
Whether Trump will act to change this situation is anyone’s guess. But his words speak to a broader reality: America’s paucity of high-speed rail is, increasingly, an embarrassing anomaly.
Even since Trump’s last term, the global high-speed rail picture has evolved considerably. Seven countries have inaugurated high-speed rail networks since he first took office in 2017, and another half dozen more currently have their first lines under construction.
“It’s a technology that has existed for 60 years. It’s mature,” said Eric Goldwyn, a transportation researcher at NYU’s Marron Institute. “The global state of high-speed rail is quite promising. You’re seeing expansion all over the world.”
For most of high-speed rail’s history, it was possible for Americans to write it off as the province of elite railroading countries. Japan pioneered the technology in the 1960s. France and Germany began building out their networks in the 1980s. A few other western European countries joined them in the final years of the 20th century.
But this mode of transportation really began to pick up speed in the new Millennium. There are currently 10 times more miles of high-speed track rail globally now than there were in 2000.
Most of that growth, on a per-mile basis, took place in China, whose network debuted in 2008. China’s 30,000 miles of high-speed track make up about two-thirds of the global total. But many other countries either created or massively expanded their high-speed rail networks over that period. South Korea has opened over 500 miles of high-speed track since 2004, and Turkey has debuted the same number of miles since 2009. Most of Spain’s 2,500 mile network, the second-largest in the world, was built in the 21st century.
In the past decade, a dizzying diversity of countries have joined the bullet train community, including Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Serbia, Poland, Greece and Indonesia. Next up are Thailand, the Baltics, Egypt, India, and Iran, to name just a few countries building out new networks.
Most of the old stalwarts, like France, Germany, China, Japan and South Korea, are continuing to build on their legacy lines, as well. The EU has set a goal of doubling high-speed rail ridership by 2030, and tripling it by 2050.
Another 8,000 miles of high-speed track are expected to come online worldwide by 2028. If all goes according to plan, some 200 of those miles will be in the Mojave Desert between Las Vegas and Southern California on the under-construction Brightline West system.
That project will join Amtrak’s Acela service and Brightline’s Florida service among the nation’s current high-speed rail offerings. Neither the Acela, which maxes out at 150 miles per hour for a short stretch of its run, nor Brightline Florida, which maxes out at 125 mph for a brief section, are remotely close to world-class.
America’s lack of a national high-speed rail plan or a consistent long-term funding source, along with arduous permitting and environmental review processes, have prevented a more vibrant industry from taking shape. Without any domestic expertise in high-speed rail planning or construction, the projects that are attempted take too long and cost too much. Case in point: California’s ongoing project, which should connect Bakersfield and Merced in the early 2030s, but with no foreseeable completion date for the San Francisco and Los Angeles legs.
One of the biggest recent changes in global high-speed rail development is that most of the countries building systems for the first time are doing so with the help of an experienced country. No longer do governments need to invest in years of research and development. High-speed rail is getting closer to being an off-the-shelf technology. Japanese, Chinese, and French firms have now helped build multiple systems outside of their home country’s borders.
That said, high-speed rail development is never easy or cheap. Projects frequently cost more and take longer than planned. Some lines are shiny objects meant to stroke the egos of national leaders, rather than high-value transportation links. Some systems, including China’s, carry enormous amounts of debt, as the Wall Street Journal recently reported.
There are better and worse ways to plan and build high-speed rail. But the critics who say this is not a worthwhile transportation technology are getting quieter. There are rational political and economic reasons that such a diversity of countries are all pursuing the same ends.
Mature networks have reaped significant benefits from their investments. The development of the Train à Grand Vitesse in France has corresponded with enormous passenger growth. Total French rail ridership in 2019 was three times higher than it was in 1980, Le Monde Diplomatique recently reported. In Spain, where the high-speed network is rapidly expanding, 2024 high-speed rail ridership is double 2018 rates.
While China builds some far-flung routes it may not need, its core network is thriving, and total ridership in 2023 reached record highs. A company serving the Beijing to Shanghai route reported $1.5 billion in profits last year.
The environmental benefits of high-speed rail are significant, as well. A 2011 French study republished by the U.S. Department of Transportation found that the lifecycle carbon footprint of high-speed rail was 14 to 16 times lower than transportation by private car or plane.
Wherever quality high-speed rail routes are rolled out, the share of travelers choosing to fly tends to plummet. Alitalia, Italy’s domestic air carrier, went out of business as the country built out its high-speed rail network. The number of flights between Seoul and Daegu was cut in half after the cities were connected by bullet trains, according to The Economics and Politics of High-Speed Rail by Daniel Albalate and Germa Bel.
Historically, airlines have fought against the introduction of high-speed rail. But that could be starting to change, as some companies seek to shed more expensive to operate, and more polluting, short-haul routes. After opposing previous rail proposals, Air Canada in 2024 joined a consortium with French rail operator SNCF to build a proposed high-speed rail line connecting Toronto and Montreal. The two other bidders seeking to build out Canada’s network include Spain’s Renfe and Germany’s Deutsche Bahn.
Getting the U.S. up to speed may likewise require partnering with experienced rail-building countries. That’s the plan for the proposed Texas Central project connecting Houston and Dallas, which would use Japanese Shinkansen technology.
“We shouldn’t be afraid of copying what other countries have done,” Goldwyn said.
Ironically, restoring America’s railroad greatness could require humbly requesting aid from friends. Will that be a deal Trump is willing to make?
