After two years of declines, United States greenhouse gas emissions increased in 2025—a change driven by increased electricity use, due in part to data centers and cryptocurrency mining, as well as cold winter temperatures that meant homes required more heating.
Emissions increased 2.4% in 2025, according to preliminary data from the research firm Rhodium Group. That’s higher than the country’s GDP growth, which increased by a projected 1.9%.
That the country’s emissions grew more than its GDP is notable: Climate experts have long noted that it’s both possible and necessary to reduce emissions while still growing the economy. And for the past few years, the U.S. has done just that. (Multiple states have also individually reduced their emissions while growing their economies.)
Now, though, 2025 has broken a three-year trend in which the economy’s growth outpaced our emissions growth.
Heating, data centers, and crypto mining
The main drivers of this emissions increase came from the buildings and power sectors.
Colder temperatures meant more homes had to rely on natural gas and coal for heating. The winter of 2025 specifically “led to increased direct combustion of these fuels in buildings, driving up emissions by 56 million metric tons, or 6.8%, compared to 2024,” per Rhodium.
Coal generation grew 13% compared to the year prior, making 2025 just the second year in the past decade in which coal generation increased. (Since its peak in 2007, coal generation has shrunk by 64%.)
Coal use grew in part because natural gas prices increased. Utility companies also delayed planned retirements for coal plants in order to meet a growing demand for power, and due to Department of Energy orders.
At the same time, electricity use increased. Total electricity generation grew 2.4% in 2025, mostly because of commercial buildings “where data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large load customers drove electricity demand,” according to Rhodium.
The surge in electricity demand comes as AI has fueled a boom in data center construction. (Rhodium’s report also notes that investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure were a major source of U.S. economic growth, as well.)
While transportation is responsible for the highest share of emissions, that sector only saw a 0.1% growth in greenhouse gases compared to 2024. Road traffic actually increased, but the growing share of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids on the road meant gas consumption declined.
How Trump policies could impact emissions
Though U.S. emissions increased in 2025, they’re still below pre-pandemic levels—6% below 2019’s emissions, and 18% below 2005’s emissions.
But Trump administration policies could mean greenhouse gas emissions grow even more.
The Trump administration has already made efforts to curtail climate progress, bolstering the use of fossil fuels, canceling clean energy products, and removing federal tax incentives that would get more people to buy EVs or other energy-efficient technologies.
Despite those efforts, which began as soon as Trump took office in January for his second presidential term, the emissions growth in 2025 wasn’t really impacted by recent Trump or congressional policies, Rhodium says.
“Apart from some modest contributions to increased coal generation from Department of Energy orders to keep a few plants running, we aren’t yet seeing the direct effects of these policy changes in U.S. emissions,” the report reads.
That could change in the next year or two, though, the researchers note, “particularly if data center electricity demand continues to surge and the grid responds with more output from existing fossil generators instead of new, clean resources.”
