Dive Brief:
Roughly half of Americans say they’re concerned about how the incoming Trump administration could impact their health insurance. That uncertainty could be causing people to delay choosing coverage for 2025, despite looming end-of-year deadlines, a recent survey suggests.
Medicare shoppers are the most concerned about the presidential turnover, followed by buyers of plans in the Affordable Care Act exchanges, the survey conducted by insurance broker Stride and market research firm Chadwick Martin Bailey found.
Of people who had yet to buy a plan as of last Wednesday, 22% cited potential cost or coverage changes stemming from the new administration as their main reason for putting off enrollment. That surpassed the percentage of people delaying signups due to the cost of coverage — normally a top reason, according to the companies.
Dive Insight:
President-elect Donald Trump’s second crack at the White House could cause significant turbulence in the healthcare industry. His administration is expected to move to cut funding in the safety-net Medicaid program and roll back policies that have led to historic enrollment in ACA plans.
Trump’s picks for top agency officials also have track records of supporting increased privatization of Medicare, suggesting that seniors could be increasingly nudged toward Medicare Advantage plans, which research has shown cost taxpayers more despite the possibility for restricted coverage.
Worries about upheaval to government healthcare programs are trickling down to the American consumer, suggests the survey conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4, and exacerbating existing indecision and doubt about selecting coverage.
Consumers are already uncertain about shopping for plans: The majority don’t know the deadlines for enrollment or changes impacting their premiums and coverage, according to past research from Stride.
Trump was relatively quiet about healthcare on the campaign trail, as other issues — immigration, the economy — took precedence. However, since triumphing over Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in November, Trump has been more vocal about his disdain for the ACA, a law which enacted sweeping healthcare protections for consumers more than one decade ago.
“Obamacare stinks. It’s lousy. There are better answers,” Trump said in an interview with NBC News on Sunday.
Concern about the Trump administration was the second most-cited reason for delays in selecting a plan for 2025
Primary reasons consumers have yet to purchase health insurance, Nov. 30 to Dec. 4
Experts view it as unlikely that the Trump administration will once again to try to repeal the ACA in its entirety. Instead, regulators could chip away at the edges of the law, through expanding access to cheaper, skimpier plans or cutting funding for nonprofits that help consumers navigate the exchanges.
Perhaps the biggest question mark hanging over the ACA next year is whether Washington will allow more generous financial assistance for enrollees to expire.
The subsidies, put in place over the COVID-19 pandemic to ensure more Americans had access to healthcare coverage, are currently slated to lapse at the end of next year if not extended by Congress. Democrats have already introduced legislation to preserve the tax credits, citing lower costs for beneficiaries.
Republicans, however, have alleged increased fraud stemming from the influx of funds and raised concerns about the burden on the federal budget, suggesting the subsidies may not survive the next administration. (Though, the issue is complicated by the popularity of the ACA and that much of the financial assistance has gone to voters in Republican districts.)
Without the subsidies, the number of uninsured Americans could increase by almost 4 million on average every year through 2034, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Benchmark premiums for people who remain on ACA plans could rise 7.9% on average annually.
Only 4.4 million of the more than 21 million Americans with existing ACA plans have selected coverage for 2025, according to the most recent government data.
The deadline to select ACA coverage is Sunday.
Concerns about the Trump administration may be contributing to delays, but likely aren’t causing people to flee the ACA exchanges entirely. That’s as people with existing plans who do not actively re-enroll will have their coverage automatically renewed for 2025.
