Shares in Super Micro Computer, Inc. (Nasdaq: SMCI) are once again rising in premarket trading this morning. As of the time of this writing, SMCI stock is up over 6% to $59.25 per share. That rise is in addition to the more than 16% rise in the stock yesterday.
When looking back year-to-date, Super Micro Computer (aka Supermicro) has seen shares rise over 83% as of yesterday’s close. It is now at highs not seen since late August when a spate of bad news, including alleged accounting issues, kicked off a months-long drop in the stock’s price.
The turnaround in SMCI’s stock price fortunes has been especially evident over the last five days. During that time, SMCI shares were up over 30% as of yesterday’s close. But why? There are two likely reasons:
Supermicro ‘believes’ it will file critical SEC paperwork on time
One of the problems that have rattled Supermicro investors is company’s delayed filing of its Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The form should have been filed last year, and if Supermicro does not file it by February 25, which is next Tuesday, the company could be delisted from the Nasdaq stock exchange.
But as Fast Company previously reported, Supermicro last week announced that it believes it will be able to make that deadline. The statement was music to investors’ ears.
“Supermicro continues to work diligently toward the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2024,” the company said in a statement. “Based on information currently available, the Company believes it will make such filings by February 25, 2025.”
A strong 2026 forecast
Last week, Supermicro announced its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. With those results, the company also updated its projected revenue for full-year fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026. While Supermicro lowered its fiscal 2025 projected revenue forecast, the company raised its 2026 forecast.
Supermicro now suggests that it will make over $40 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026. Some of that revenue increase is partly due to another company—Nvidia. As companies adopt the new line of Nvidia Blackwell GPUs to power their AI needs, many will need the server racks that Supermicro makes to deploy them, thus giving Supermicro sales a boost.
“With our leading direct-liquid cooling (DLC) technology and over 30% of new data centers expected to adopt it in the next 12 months, Supermicro is well positioned to grow AI infrastructure designs wins based on NVIDIA Blackwell and more,” CEO Charles Liang said last week. He continued, “[We] will expand our leadership as the premier US-based data center infrastructure solution provider.”
Where does SMCI stock go from here?
Of course, revenue forecasts are just that—forecasts, not guarantees. And despite Super Micro Computer’s statement that it “believes” it will be able to file its delinquent SEC form by next Tuesday’s deadline, nothing is certain until the forms are actually submitted.
Yet investor optimism seems strong regardless given SMCI’s stock price surge over the past five trading days and since the beginning of the year.
But even though SMCI stock is up over 30% in the past five days and over 83% since the beginning of the year, the company’s stock price is still down by more than 30% over the past 12 months as of yesterday’s close.
Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess, but the next big driver of its rise or fall will likely be confirmation of whether it was able to file its missing 10-K form by February 25.
