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National home prices are up 2.3% year over year. Historically, that reflects slightly softer growth compared to the average annual increase of 4.7% since 2000.
That said, several regional housing markets still boast home price growth exceeding the historical average. Heading into 2025, these are the nation’s strongest housing markets, where sellers hold the most power.
Among the 200 largest metro-area housing markets, 60 are still experiencing local home prices rising by 4.7% or more year over year.
While home prices have softened in Gulf markets like Texas, Florida, and Louisiana (where inventory has spiked back above pre-pandemic levels) most of the housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest still have inventory far below pre-pandemic levels, and still have elevated home price growth.
Those include major metros like New York City-Newark, New Jersey (7%); Providence, Rhode Island (6.7%); Hartford, Connecticut (6.7%); Cleveland (5.9%); Las Vegas (5.2%); Buffalo, New York (5.2%); and Chicago (5%).
Many pandemic boomtowns in the Sunbelt are experiencing greater affordability strain as well as facing significant home insurance shocks and higher levels of new-home inventory. In some Sunbelt areas, this inventory requires discounts to sell in the current environment of reduced pandemic-era migration and strained affordability.
In contrast, many Northeast and Midwest markets were less reliant on pandemic migration and have less new-home construction in progress. With lower exposure on that demand shock, active inventory in these Midwest and Northeast regions has remained relatively tight, keeping the advantage in the hands of home sellers.
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Will these 60 tight housing markets remain seller’s markets in 2025?
Excluding a few acute economic and monetary shocks over the decades, local housing dynamics usually shift slowly—meaning, unless those 60 markets cool off quickly and see active inventory spike, home sellers in those pockets will likely retain their iron grip on their local housing markets in spring 2025.
